Zhou Zhicheng inside the Federal Reserve to reproduce differences, the price of gold stand above 120-diying

Zhou Zhicheng: the Fed’s internal representation differences gold firm fundamentals above 1200 markets: International Spot gold on Tuesday (February 16th) the highest hit $1217 an ounce, the lowest dropping to $1190.73 an ounce, down $6.39, to close at $1202.49 an ounce, down 0.53%. The New York Mercantile Exchange gold futures on Tuesday (16 days) to rise because of the global stock market and the dollar index, inhibited the safe haven demand for gold, the United States COMEX April gold futures fell $31.20 to close at $1208.20 an ounce, down 2.50% since 2015, recorded its biggest one-day drop in 7 months. Spot silver Thursday touched intraday high of $15.41 an ounce, the minimum fell to $15.11 an ounce, closing at $15.19 an ounce, the daily harvest brought under the shadow, fluctuated down trend. German think tank ZEW Tuesday (16 days) released data show that in February the German ZEW economic sentiment index was only 1, the lowest level since October 2014, the market is expected to 0, far lower than the previous value of 10.2; Germany January ZEW economic situation index was 52.3, the lowest level since February 2015, the market expected value of 55 in the euro zone in February; ZEW economic sentiment index was 13.6, much lower than the previous value of 22.7. It has been pointed out that Germany’s ZEW economic index dropped in February, partly due to the continued pressure on China’s exports from China and other emerging markets, as well as the influx of refugees poses a serious challenge to the German society. U.S. Federal Reserve New York Tuesday released data show that the United States in February the New York fed manufacturing index was -16.64, expected to be -10.50, the former value of -19.37. Data show that the U.S. Federal Reserve manufacturing activities in New York in February are still fragile, and has been in the situation for seven consecutive months. Other data also showed that the employment index rebounded to -0.99, in December was -13.00; the new order index was -11.63. As one of the forward-looking indicators of the American Supply Management Association (ISM) manufacturing index, the New York fed manufacturing index is underperforming, suggesting that ISM manufacturing activity remains weak in February. The U.S. NAHB housing price index for February was 58, expected to be 60. Since the major oil producers agreed to freeze production rather than cooperative production, the U.S. NYMEX crude oil futures prices fell 0.40 dollars in March, closed at 29.04 U.S. dollars barrels, down 1.36%. Philadelphia Federal Reserve Chairman Huck said on Tuesday that the Fed must wait carefully for stronger inflation data before the second interest rate hike. At present, the U.S. economy is on the upward trend, and optimistic about the overall outlook for the U.S. economic outlook. Haq also said that the turmoil in the financial markets, the dollar and the Chinese factors pose a risk. Inflation is likely to be low in the first quarter, and may even be negative. If the adverse factors rapidly fade, more aggressive policies may be needed. Huck expects the fed to make more meaningful interest rates in the second half of the year. Saint Louis on Tuesday

周智诚:美联储内部再现分歧 金价站稳1200上方   市场基本面:   国际现货黄金周二(2月16日)最高触及1217.00美元 盎司,最低下探1190.73美元 盎司,下跌6.39美元,收报1202.49美元 盎司,跌幅0.53%。美国纽约商品交易所黄金期货周二(16日)因全球股市和美元指数上扬,抑制了对黄金的避险需求,美国COMEX 4月黄金期货价格下跌31.20美元,收报1208.20美元 盎司,跌幅2.50%,录得2015年7月中以来最大单日跌幅。现货白银周二盘中最高触及15.41美元 盎司,最低跌至15.11美元 盎司,收报15.19美元 盎司,日线收成带上下引线的阴线,呈现震荡回落的态势。   德国智库ZEW周二(16日)发布的数据显示,德国2月ZEW经济景气指数仅为1.0,创下2014年10月以来最低水平,市场预期0,远低于前值10.2;德国1月ZEW经济现况指数为52.3,为2015年2月以来最低水平,市场预期值55.0;此外欧元区2月ZEW经济景气指数为13.6,远低于前值22.7。有评论指出,德国2月ZEW经济景气指数大降,部分是由于中国及其他新兴市场经济放缓对德国出口继续构成压力,以及难民涌入对德国社会构成严重挑战。   美国纽约联储周二公布的数据显示,美国2月纽约联储制造业指数为-16.64,预期为-10.50,前值-19.37。数据显示美国2月纽约联储制造业活动依然脆弱,且已经连续七个月处于该态势。其他数据还显示,就业指数回升至-0.99,12月为-13.00;新订单指数为-11.63。作为美国供应管理协会(ISM)制造业指数的前瞻指标之一,纽约联储制造业指数表现不佳暗示2月ISM制造业活动仍然疲软。昨日公布的美国2月NAHB房价指数为58.0,预期为60.0。由于主要产油国只同意冻结产量而不是合作减产,昨日美国NYMEX 3月原油期货价格下跌0.40美元,收报29.04美元 桶,跌幅1.36%。   美国费城联储主席哈克周二表示,美联储在第二次加息前必须谨慎等待更强劲的通胀数据。目前美国经济整体呈上行趋势,并且对美国经济前景的总体预期仍保持乐观态度。哈克还表示,金融市场动荡、美元和中国因素构成风险。第一季度通胀率可能很低,甚至可能为负数。如果不利因素迅速消退,可能需要更加激进的政策。哈克预计下半年美联储将进行更有意义的加息。周二圣路易斯联储主席布拉德表示,美联储的通胀目标令人困惑。布拉德强调通胀预期比过去通胀走势更重要。布拉德是美联储偏鹰派委员,2016年在FOMC会议上拥有表决权。   中盛中天分析师周智诚认为,昨日德国和欧元区ZEW经济景气指数表现不佳,这说明欧央行的大规模量化宽松依然没有达到预期效果,未来经济的不确定性让人焦虑;昨日美国纽约联储数据同样令人失望,甚至可以推测美国一季度GDP整体不会太好,这对美联储能否再次加息是重大挑战,此外美联储内部重量级人物目前鹰鸽立场鲜明,内部分歧呈现扩大趋势,预计也会对美联储下一步行动构成障碍,这对金银的反弹十分有利。   现货金周三(2月17日)亚市午盘,金价小幅震荡,现持稳于1207美元 盎司上方。全球最大的上市交易基金SPDR Gold Trust截至2月17日的黄金持仓量维持在710.95吨的水平不变。现货白银周三亚市午盘,银价小幅震荡,现持稳于15.20美元 盎司上方。全球最大的白银上市交易基金iShares Silver Trust截至2月17日的白银持仓量维持在9710.19吨的水平不变。   金价4小时K线分析:   技术上看,金价在5日均线1218下方震荡,停留在200日均线1119和150日均线1116上方,周线超买。目前4小时线MACD在0轴附近运行,中短期均线组中性聚合并与中长期均线组互相交错,RSI指标在49,随机指标在60,金价在布林轨下轨向中轨附近运行。今天白天金价多空分水岭在1203,上方阻力在1213,1219和1229,下方支撑在1193,1187和1177。分析师认为金价返回2008年低点681至2011年高点1921的61.8%回调位1155上方,同时返回1200关口上方,目前位于1046至1263涨势的23.6%回调位1211附近,下方支撑在1200关口至38.2%回调位1180区间,上方阻力位于1211至4小时中轨1216区间。分析师建议保持震荡思路。今日可考虑在1203附近轻仓做多,目标在1213附近,进一步看向1219附近,或在1203至1219之间寻找区间操作机会,震荡行情中短线多空皆可,止损3至5美元。   银价4小时K线分析:   技术形态上看,银价在5日均线15.45下方震荡,停留在200日均线15.05和150日均线14.70上方,1小时线超买。目前4小时图中MACD在0轴下方运行,RSI值在49,随机指标在42,银价在布林轨下轨向中轨附近运行,目前银价中短期均线组向下发散并与中长期均线互相交错。   今天银价的多空分水岭在15.23,上方阻力在15.35,15.42,15.53,下方支撑在15.12,15.05,14.94。分析师认为银价停留在15.00关口上方,目前位于16.34至13.62跌势的61.8%反弹位15.30附近,上方阻力在4小时中轨15.41附近,更上方阻力位于前高15.93附近;下方支撑位于15.30至50%反弹位14.98区间,更下方支撑在38.2%反弹位14.66附近。银价分析师建议保持震荡思路。   今日可考虑在15.23附近轻仓做多,目标看向15.35附近,进一步看向15.42附近,或在15.20至15.53之间进行区间操作,震荡行情中短线多空皆有机会,到达目标位坚决止盈出场,止损0.3-0.5美元。   现货白银人民币报价(西南银)今日可考虑在3200附近轻仓做多,目标看向3230附近,进一步可看向3260附近,短线多空皆有机会,到达目标位坚决止盈出场,止损20至30点。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: