The stock market to stock split the stock market Institutional warning, high leverage real risk-tsumori chisato

The stock market to stock split the stock market Early warning mechanism of high leverage real financial risk Sina Level2:A shares of sina finance: App speed Kanpan live on-line blogger to tutor Li Jiexue told reporters in Shenzhen with the real estate inventory to stimulus policies, all of this discussion is gradually warming up, influence is considered closely with market linkage of the stock market will be the real estate to the inventory. The market has become a concern of the people. Some investors believe that with the promotion of inventory to all places, a large number of property prices will be low, hot money may abandon the stock market and into the housing market, resulting in the diversion effect on the stock market. The twenty-first Century economic report reporter noted that, in recent years, some real estate intermediary also in the "stock market downturn, it is better to buy a house really" slogan to attract customers. Will real estate destocking cause pumping effect on the stock market? Many respondents believe that this concern is not necessary, on the contrary, more worthy of vigilance should be the use of high leverage real risk. "Off stock" diversion effect is weak, the real estate "going to stock" will affect the stock market, the reporter and a number of institutional exchanges, from the feedback point of view, it is generally considered that the real estate destocking to the stock market diversion is not big. Shenzhen chamagudao investment company president Zhu Siming told reporters, "the real estate to do inventory may cause some diversion of funds, such as the current number of listed companies, real estate fund mergers and acquisitions, investment institutions, individual investors have to continue or expand the real estate investment plans, but I think that this diversion is limited, too large no impact on the stock market. And because the stock market is bad, the money to invest in real estate, I have been particularly aware of, there is no such case around." Zhu Siming further analysis, said, "first, the real estate compared to the stock market, cash more difficult.". The current stock market short-term earnings expectations compared to the market, because the stock market rebound may have 20% earnings growth, but the current real estate earnings growth expectations and asset liquidity is more difficult, not to mention the current investment environment, cash rate become the factors that many investors are now more important; secondly, the reason why to the inventory, because the real estate inventory is too much, the real estate value of the expected itself is not strong, so the money into the property market out of the stock market will not be great probability of happening. In addition, the current housing prices in some cities have continued to rise for a long time, the probability of a sharp rise is not large, on the contrary, the stock market is not high point." For Zhu Siming’s view, Shenzhen another private person in charge of Li Feng (alias) said that recognition. Li Feng said, "because the stock market is not good to turn to real estate, I think the problem is simplistic.". When the heat of the stock market last year, I do have to take a lot of real estate mortgage loans after the stock market crash case, then suffered a house was gone, but the stock market money away to real estate speculators really haven’t heard, except for individual cases." As good as water investment director Hou Anyang said, "I think the real estate inventory to influence on the macroeconomic impact of the stock market is much larger than. On the stock capital of buying a house

楼市去库存分流股市? 机构预警高杠杆炒房风险 新浪财经Level2:A股极速看盘 新浪财经App:直播上线 博主一对一指导   本报记者 李洁雪 深圳报道   随着房地产去库存刺激政策的陆续出台,各界对此讨论逐渐升温,被认为与楼市联动紧密的股市是否会受到房地产去库存的影响,成为了市场人士关心的问题。   有投资者认为,随着各地去库存的推进,大量房产将出现价格低洼,热钱可能会抛弃股市而转入房市,对股市造成分流效应。而21世纪经济报道记者注意到,近期一些房产中介也在以“股市低迷,不如买个房子实在”的口号招揽顾客。   房地产去库存是否真的会对股市造成抽水效应?多位受访机构人士认为,这一担忧没有必要,相反,更值得警惕的应是运用高杠杆炒房的风险。   “去库存”分流效应微弱   对房地产“去库存”是否会对股市造成影响的这一问题,记者与多位机构人士进行了交流,从反馈来看,普遍认为房地产去库存对股市分流作用不大。   深圳茶马古道投资公司总裁朱思铭向记者表示,“房地产去库存对资金确实可能会造成一定分流,比如目前一些上市公司、房地产并购基金、投资机构、个人投资者等都有继续或扩大地产投资的打算,但我认为这种分流比较有限,对股市不会有太大影响。而因为股市不好就把钱拿去投资房地产的,我特别留意过,周边并没有这样的案例。”   朱思铭进一步分析称,“首先,房地产相比股市而言,变现难度较大。目前股市短期盈利的预期相比楼市要高,因为股市一波反弹可能就会有20%收益增长,但目前情况下房地产盈利增长的预期和资产变现难度是比较大的,更何况现有投资环境下,变现速率成为了很多投资者现在比较看重的因素;其次,之所以要去库存,就是因为房地产库存量太多,这种情况下房地产增值的预期本身就不强,因此抽出股市资金转投楼市的情况发生概率也不会很大。此外,目前部分城市房价已持续上涨较长时间,再大幅上涨的概率不大,相反股市目前并不算高点。”   对于朱思铭的看法,深圳另一位私募负责人李峰(化名)表示认可。李峰表示,“因为股市不好就转向房地产,我觉得是把问题简单化了。去年股市热的时候,我身边倒是有不少拿房产抵押了去贷款炒股的案例,后来遭遇股灾后房子被收走了,但把股市的钱抽走了去炒房的真没听说,除非是个别案例。”   上善若水投资总监侯安扬也表示,“我认为房地产去库存对宏观经济的影响要比对股市的影响大很多。买房的存量资金本来就是从存款、或是刚性信贷来的,是否会对股市分流很难说。”   而针对北京、上海、深圳等一线城市房价暴涨的情况,上海一位私募人士韩平(化名)认为,“可能是由于局部垄断造成了房价虚高,这个虚高并不是公允的价值,实际的成交量跟价格的关系走势并不是正相关,并不能反映真实的市场供需状态。”   具体到“去库存”的投资机会方面,机构普遍认为,房地产去库存对地产板块会形成持续的利好。   韩平表示,“选择标的应区分来看,去库存不可能利于所有房地产公司。要看开发商是区域性还是全国性的地产公司,主要业务范畴是集中在一线、二线还是三线城市。目前来讲主打一线城市的公司肯定更具有保障,因为这部分区域房地产价格的稳定性是远远强于其它城市的,如果是二、三线的话,风险防御能力是比较低的。像宝能、万科这些传统的房地产公司,也比较值得关注。”   高杠杆风险或传递到金融市场   比起对股市的影响,机构人士对一线城市高倍杠杆炒房表达了更多的担忧。   侯安扬就十分担忧目前一线城市背后炒房客的高倍杠杆使用情况,“一线城市特别是深圳的房价短期上涨得这么高,与去年资本市场的发展有一定关系,但资本市场又不可能一直保持良好,所以我个人对此其实不太乐观。现在炒房各种杠杆都用了,像链家就是给客户提供首付,然后客户拿着首付再去找银行借钱,这是一种特别高杠杆的行为,我个人对这个事情比较担忧,因为我们只能是躲过这个风险,但如果爆发风险影响非常大。”   “因为借钱做首付的利息高达十几、二十个点,如果房价上涨的速度不够快,将很难去维系利息支出,像2008年深圳有一批炒房客最后就是都不要房子了。这个过程中牵扯着很多的信贷关系,比如像链家这种情况,它借出去的钱本身可能就是从另外渠道的金融产品过来的,涉及很多层面的人,风险比较大,我认为中央层面应该制止一下这种行为。” 侯安扬表示。   而据记者了解,部分炒房客确实采用了包括众筹、贷款、过桥贷款等多种方式来进行炒房,押宝一线城市房价继续上涨。   相较之下,二、三线城市面临的情况则完全是另一番景象。   一位某三线城市的房屋中介刘某(化名)告诉记者,“我们公司现在是一栋栋的推,不做整个项目推送,比较谨慎。目前占据交通资源学区资源还是很抢手的,基本上半个月到一个月卖光一栋楼。”   而朱思铭告诉记者,其在近期走访了多个二、三线城市,切实地感受到目前房地产去库存的急迫性,特别是一些三线城市,房地产库存高企的问题比较严重。   朱思铭表示,“银行对地产的政策是判断当地房地产走向的关键指标之一,其中的一个重要指标就是参考银行的折扣率。银行与当地房地产企业一般都有着密切的业务联系,对当地房地产市场未来走向一般会有较为合理的理解和判断。我了解的一些三线城市,银行对某些商品房住宅批出的质押贷款已经降到了4-5折,而以前大概是6-7折,这反映了银行对房地产泡沫的担忧。三线城市现在的库存太大了,整个消费市场的购买力也不强。”   (编辑:巫燕玲,邮箱wuyl@@21jingji) 新浪声明:此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体,新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: