The long-term upward tone unchanged Zheng sugar in the ready – stage financial Sohu-sayu-02

The long-term upward tone unchanged Zheng sugar in the ready stage of Sohu financial management at the beginning of February, Zheng sugar 1605 main contract fell below 5400 yuan and 5300 yuan tons of tons of important support, and the current decline has no signs of bottoming out. At the same time, international sugar market also continued to decline, the main contract ICE sugar temporarily ended in 12.60 cents a pound, more drama for the domestic sugar market downward price concerns. Based on the analysis of sugar production data and annual consumption data at home and abroad, Zheng sugar price downward is difficult to continue for a long time, is currently in the stage of readiness. The long-term upward tone unchanged international sugar prices after years of continuous oscillation and low sugar production 5 years of continuous production prospects of the current production pile up in excess of requirement, insufficient to boost market sentiment to a certain extent. From the sugar production forecast in major countries of view, does support the long-term rise in sugar prices. First of all, although the idea that Brazil GDP may decline this year, and Brazil Real continued to depreciate against the dollar as a result of international sugar prices at the same time, scheduled to start in March 20162017 of the sugar cane production will be increased to 6.2 tons, but from the current Brazil in 20152016 years the sugar yield did not exceed expectations too much. Secondly, under the influence of drought, India sugar production is expected to reduce 2 million 300 thousand tons than 20142015 sugar production, only 26 million tons. However, the industry expects the output to roughly meet domestic consumption in India, i.e., the sugar available for export in India can only be used as the surplus sugar for the previous year. Finally, despite the fact that the current Thailand authorities have not expressed their views on domestic sugar production, the dry weather in 2015 has seriously affected the sugarcane production areas in the central and Western Thailand. Market analysis, Thailand sugar production in 20152016 sugar reduction to 10 million tons level, while the domestic sugar consumption in Thailand is expected to be at 2 million 500 thousand tons level. Therefore, in the new sugar year, Thailand sugar exports will not exceed 8 million 500 thousand tons in the last year of sugar. Overall, the sugar consumption capacity of the major producing countries has not decreased significantly. The market expects that India’s sugar consumption in 20152016 sugar production will reach 26 million tons, and the domestic sugar consumption in Thailand is still at the level of 2 million 500 thousand tons. However, Indonesia’s sugar imports in the first quarter has issued a license to import 96 thousand and 800 tons of raw sugar. Combined with the domestic production of sugar in the year has become a foregone conclusion, the whole international sugar market for the pre digestion of high inventory provides an opportunity. The short-term price of Zheng sugar continues to slump, and the reason for the slow decline in the price of Zheng sugar is the weakness of the domestic macro economy and the lack of prosperous season. On the one hand, China’s economic slowdown led to low investment and consumption, which is also one of the main reasons for the Spring Festival sugar market is not booming. However, the domestic capital market turbulence at the same time triggered the market further concerns about the domestic economic outlook, this negative sentiment also affects the domestic commodity market, resulting in Zheng sugar futures inevitable in the short atmosphere down. On the other hand, after the Spring Festival, the market has entered the traditional sales season, while the use of sugar.

糖价长期上行基调不变 郑糖处于蓄势待发阶段-搜狐理财   2月初,郑糖主力1605合约跌破5400元 吨及5300元 吨重要支撑位,并且当前跌势并无见底迹象。同期,外糖行情也延续跌势,ICE原糖主力合约暂时止于12.60美分 磅,更加剧了国内对于白糖市场价格下行的担忧。基于国内外食糖生产数据及年度消费数据分析,郑糖价格下行难以长期持续,当前处于蓄势待发阶段。   糖价长期上行基调不变   国际糖价在持续多年低位振荡且食糖产量持续5年供过于求之后,当前产不足需的生产前景在一定程度上提振了市场情绪。从当前各食糖主产国的产量预测上看,也确实支持糖价长期上涨。   首先,尽管有观点认为巴西GDP在今年可能有所下滑,并且巴西雷亚尔持续对美元贬值等导致国际糖价回落,同时拟于3月开始的2016 2017制糖年甘蔗产量将增至6.2亿吨,但从当前看巴西于2015 2016制糖年的产量并未超出预期太多。   其次,受干旱天气影响,印度食糖产量预期比2014 2015制糖年减产230万吨,仅为2600万吨。然而,业内预计该产量大致满足印度国内消费,即印度可用于出口的食糖只能为上一年度的结余库存糖。   最后,尽管当前泰国官方没有对国内食糖产量表态,但2015年的干旱天气严重影响了泰国中部和西部甘蔗产区。市场分析,泰国在2015 2016制糖年食糖产量减至1000万吨水平,而泰国国内食糖消费量预计在250万吨水平。因而,在新的制糖年,泰国食糖出口量不会超过上一制糖年的850万吨水平。   整体来看,各主产国的食糖消费能力并没有明显下降。市场预计,印度在2015 2016制糖年的食糖消费量将达到2600万吨,泰国国内食糖消费量仍处于250万吨的水平。然而,食糖进口国印度尼西亚在一季度已经发放了进口9.68万吨原糖的许可证。结合国内在本制糖年减产已成定局的情况下,整个国际糖市都为消化前期的高位库存提供了契机。   短期郑糖价格持续低迷   近期郑糖价格持续低迷的原因在于,国内宏观经济走弱及旺季不旺等因素。   一方面,我国经济增速放缓导致投资和消费低迷,这也是春节糖市旺季不旺的主要原因之一。不过,前期国内资本市场动荡同时引发了市场对国内经济前景的进一步担忧,这种负面情绪也影响着国内大宗商品市场,导致郑糖期货不可避免的在空头氛围中下行。   另一方面,春节过后,市场步入了传统的销售淡季,而用糖企业在节前的备货还处于去库存状态。同时,我国南方蔗糖主产区在春节后的一段时间处于食糖生产高峰期,这就导致了短期市场食糖供给压力增大,为糖价上涨造成一定压力。   此外,从当前期货盘面价格来比较,国际白糖期货价格不足430美元 吨,郑糖价格高达800美元 吨,内外盘价差仍有足够的诱惑力吸引进口糖甚至走私糖进入国内市场。   综合国际糖市产销数据分析,国内糖市长期上行趋势不会改变,短期内受各种阶段性因素影响,糖价有可能出现一定振荡,所以当前郑糖行情处于蓄势阶段。相关的主题文章: