The basis of polypropylene action can repair complete failure-www.ddd13.com

The basis of polypropylene action can repair complete failure due to oil producing countries is expected to achieve production, crude oil is difficult to make up to continue rising polypropylene. In addition, poor repair has been completed, polypropylene in the supply and demand weakness in the pattern, the action can be late failure, more likely to return to the disadvantaged. The pattern of the cost side has not changed. Since mid January, under the continuous fermentation of OPEC production reduction rumors, crude oil prices have fluctuated sharply, and there is a strong rebound trend of "W" bottom. Affected by this, the market to see more crude oil sentiment, but crude oil has bottomed out? The author holds a negative attitude towards it. First of all, it is difficult to reach a crude oil reduction agreement because of the absence of the United States into the agreement of crude oil reduction, and the partial reduction of OPEC and Russia is difficult to change the pattern of oversupply of crude oil. Secondly, the weak situation of crude oil supply and demand has not been alleviated, but worsened. OPEC’s February monthly forecast expects 2016 global crude oil demand to grow by 1 million 250 thousand barrels a day, down 10 thousand barrels a day compared with the January report. At the same time, IEA lowered expectations for global crude oil demand growth in 2016. Finally, although the number of drilling in the United States continues to decline, the output of crude oil has not declined significantly due to increased production from other drilling operations. In addition, the commercial crude oil inventories remain at 500 million barrels high, while the winter heating oil consumption season is approaching the end, inventory is expected to continue to increase. The author believes that, in short term by limiting production expectations and the impact of the fall of the dollar, crude oil prices or stabilized, but taking into account the limited production is difficult to reach a short time, the supply and demand pattern continues to deteriorate, so the overall pattern of crude oil vulnerable to change. Due to the substantial increase in production capacity and economic downturn brought about by the downturn in consumption, the supply and demand pattern of polypropylene is still weak. Therefore, in the context of the lack of a sharp rise in the cost side, polypropylene rise is not sustainable. The main reason for the limited upside of this round of polypropylene PP is a strong rebound in the market to repair, since the fourth quarter of 2015 fell panic caused by the non rational basis. The four quarter of 2015, due to the international oil prices and market concerns about the domestic economic downturn, polypropylene futures at the end of the National Day holiday to mid November the last 30 trading days, basically has Yindie trend, futures prices from 7188 yuan per ton fell to 5335 yuan tons of historic lows. However, the futures market often contain and enlarge the market sentiment, this phenomenon will cause the market super rise or oversold, but with the January contract near the settlement, reached the maximum 1350 yuan ton basis is obviously in need of repair. As a matter of fact, the spot price of polypropylene is very strong due to the influence of the stock market before the spring festival. Since November 2015, the spot price of polypropylene has been stable at 6600 yuan, 6700 tons, so the repair only basis through futures prices to achieve. With the delivery month approaching, polypropylene futures contract prices rose sharply in January, leading the main May contract continued to strengthen. Under the hype of funds (polypropylene position high in history).

基差修复完成 聚丙烯上行动能衰竭   由于产油国的减产预期难以实现,原油难现大涨使得聚丙烯上涨难以延续。另外,基差修复已经结束,聚丙烯在供需弱势的格局下,上行动能衰竭,后期重回弱势的可能性较大。   成本端弱势格局未变   1月中旬以来,在欧佩克组织减产的传言持续发酵下,原油价格出现了大幅波动,并且大有构筑“W”底强势反弹的态势。受此影响,市场看多原油的情绪浓厚,但是原油是否见底了呢?笔者对此持否定态度。   首先,由于没有将美国纳入原油减产的协议之中,欧佩克组织和俄罗斯局部的减产很难改变原油供给过剩的格局,所以原油减产协议很难达成。其次,原油整体供需弱势局面非但没有缓解,反而更加恶化了。欧佩克组织2月的月报预期,2016年全球原油需求将增长125万桶 日,比1月的报告下调1万桶 日。与此同时,IEA下调了2016年全球原油的需求增长预期。最后,虽然美国的钻井数持续下滑,但是由于其他钻井加大生产力度,原油的产量并没有出现明显的下降。此外,商业原油库存维持在5亿桶的高位,而冬季取暖油的消费旺季临近结束,库存有望继续增加。   笔者由此认为,短期受限产预期和美元回落的影响,原油价格或止跌企稳,但是考虑到限产短时间难以达成,供需格局又在持续恶化,所以原油整体弱势的格局难以改变。受制于产能的大幅增加和经济下行带来的消费低迷,聚丙烯的供需格局仍然趋于弱势。因此,在成本端缺乏大幅上涨基础的背景下,聚丙烯上涨不具备可持续性。   聚丙烯上行空间有限   聚丙烯此轮强势反弹的主要原因是,市场对2015年四季度以来恐慌性下跌造成的非理性基差的修复。2015年四季度,由于国际油价暴跌以及市场对国内经济下行的担忧,聚丙烯期货在国庆假期结束到11月中旬近30个交易日里,基本上呈现阴跌态势,期货价格从7188元 吨跌到5335元 吨的历史低点。   不过,期货市场中往往包含且放大市场的情绪,这种现象会造成市场的超涨或者超跌,而且随着1月合约临近交割,最大达到1350元 吨的基差显然是需要修复的。事实上,受春节前的备货行情影响,聚丙烯的现货价格非常坚挺。自2015年11月以来,聚丙烯的现货价格一直稳定在6600�6700元 吨,所以基差的修复只能通过期货价格上涨的方式来实现。   随着交割月的临近,聚丙烯期货1月合约价格大幅上涨,带动了主力5月合约持续走强。在资金的炒作下(聚丙烯持仓历史高位),聚丙烯成为了商品中表现最强势的品种。但是截至2月15日收盘,聚丙烯期货的基差只有不到200元 吨,基差修复已经完成。考虑到目前整体供给充足,下游消费又没有明显的利好,所以现货价格不具备上涨的空间。既然现货价格很难上涨,那么期货价格继续上涨就可能出现基差平水的现象,这在经济下行的大环境下是不正常的,所以聚丙烯期货的上行空间已经非常有限了。   通过以上论述,笔者认为,产油国的减产很难达成协议,原油难现大涨意味着在供需弱势的大背景下,聚丙烯很难持续上行。考虑到前期由基差修复推动的上涨行情基本结束,聚丙烯追多风险较大,建议投资者采取逢高做空的操作思路。   (作者单位:金石期货)   版权声明:本网所有内容,凡来源:“期货日报”的所有文字、图片和音视频资料,版权均属期货日报所有,任何媒体、网站或个人未经本网协议授权不得转载、链接、转贴或以其他方式复制发布 发表。已经本网协议授权的媒体、网站,在下载使用时必须注明"稿件来源:期货日报",违者本网将依法追究责任。相关的主题文章: