Historical data show that the Fed rate hike after the price of gold will rise!-guitarpro5

Historical data show that the Fed raised interest rates will rise gold prices! [Abstract] with the Fed’s second interest rate hike failed, the international gold price has risen by 27%, and it is expected that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates again in September 2016. According to bullionvault website article, in December last year, after the Federal Reserve decided to raise interest rates, the international price of gold fell to $1046 an ounce, a new low of nearly 6 years, compared with the highest point fell by 45%. International gold prices reached a peak of $1920 an ounce in 2011. In 2012, in order to stimulate the economy, the Fed expanded QE policy, launched a $85 billion bond purchase plan every month, but the price of gold did not rise again to the previous high point. International gold prices plummeted in 2013, 2014 (at this time the Fed began to reduce QE) trend is relatively stable, but in 2015 (the Federal Reserve in 2015 December for the first time hike), gold prices began to plunge. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in 2015, but then it will raise interest rates several times. When will it increase interest rates? When will the interest rate cycle end? These problems will affect the future trend of gold prices. International gold prices rose sharply in 2016, which was the first sharp rise since the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2007. With the Fed’s second interest rate hike failed, the international gold price has risen by 27%, and it is expected that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates again in September 2016. If the Fed really raises interest rates again this week, does it mean that the Fed has entered a normal rate hike cycle? From 2009 to 2015, the Fed kept interest rates at an extremely low position. With the Fed raising interest rates, it has nothing else to do with monetary policy tools. Britain’s gold price hit a two year high of $1375 an ounce after the announcement, and gold began to weaken, falling by nearly $50 an ounce. In general, some of the Fed’s decisions will lead to the immediate primary reaction of gold prices. Since the Fed has said many times, it will soon raise interest rates for the second time. So investors will worry about the trend of gold prices. The survey of investors found that they believe that once the Fed postponed interest rates, the international price of gold will rise, the answer is rising. Since 1986, compared with no interest rate hike, if the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, the international gold price is more likely to rise. In the long run, after the Fed raised interest rates, the international price of gold tends to rise sharply. And this often happens. What the hell is that? Whether short-term or long-term, the longer the Fed does not raise interest rates, the more serious the inflation rate in the United States, and the price of gold will have the role of hedging against inflation. In addition, investment is generally expected. When things haven’t happened, prepare ahead of time, when things happen, bad will be no good, maybe good will come. If the Fed raised interest rates, the international price of gold fell? Then investors can’t wait to sell gold. As you say, gold does not bring in profits, and the cost of owning gold is also high. Some investors want to cash out. From a historical point of view, the recent decline in the international price of gold indicates the fed.

历史数据显示 美联储加息后金价会大涨! [摘要]随着美联储第二次加息失败,国际金价已经上涨了27%,预计2016年9月,美联储会继续再次加息。据bullionvault网站文章,在去年12月美联储决定加息之后,国际金价一度跌至每盎司1046美元,创近6年新低,与最高点相比下跌了45%。国际金价在2011年达到最高点为每盎司1920美元。2012年为了刺激经济美联储扩大QE政策推出了每个月850亿美元的购债计划,但是金价没有重新涨至此前的高点。国际金价在2013年大跌,2014年(此时美联储开始缩减QE)的走势比较稳定,但是在2015年(美联储在2015年12月份进行了首次加息)金价又开始大跌。美联储在2015年进行了首次加息,但是接下来还会加息几次,什么时候加息?什么时候加息周期结束?这些问题都将影响金价未来的走势。2016年国际金价大幅上涨,这是自2007年国际金融危机爆发以来首次出现如此大幅度的上涨。随着美联储第二次加息失败,国际金价已经上涨了27%,预计2016年9月,美联储会继续再次加息。如果美联储这周真的再次加息是不是就意味着美联储就进入了正常的加息周期呢?2009年至2015年美联储一直把利率维持在超低的位置上。在美联储进行加息钱,它已经没有什么别的货币政策工具了。英国宣布脱欧后国际金价创下两年新高,达到每盎司1375美元,之后金价开始走软,与这一高点相比下跌了近每盎司50美元。一般来讲美联储的一些决策会引起金价的马上初选反应。由于美联储已经多次表态不久将会进行第二次加息。因此投资者会担忧金价的走势。对投资者的调查发现,他们认为美联储一旦推迟加息,国际金价就会出现答复是上涨。自1986年以来,与不加息相比,如果美联储进行加息,国际金价更有可能出现上涨。长期来看,美联储加息之后,国际金价往往会出现大幅上涨。而且这种情况经常发生。这到底是什么回事呢?无论是短期还是长期来看,美联储不加息的时间越久,美国的通胀率就越严重,而金价就有保值抵抗通胀的作用。另外,投资一般都讲求预期。在事情还没发生的时候提前做准备,当事情发生了,利空就没有了,利好说不定就会到来。如果在美联储加息的时候,国际金价下跌了呢?那么投资者就会迫不及待地出售黄金。就像大家说的那样,黄金不会带来利润,而且持有黄金的成本也比较高。这部分投资者想赶快套现。从历史的角度看,近期国际金价下跌预示着美联储将在今年9月份进行加息,但是如果加息之后金价还继续下跌是不是意味着市场判断错误呢?长期来看,我们注意到美联储加息后1年内平均每月的涨幅要比美联储降息或者保持利率不变的前24个月平均每月的涨幅要大。现在投资者都在猜测,这次美联储加息之后国际金价将会怎么走?国际金价的涨幅在美联储加息之后一般是美联储降息时的2倍左右。但是美联储加息之后,金价一定会下跌吗?这点没确定,也没有数据可以参考。然而最具参照的数据就是通胀率的变化。美联储最看重两个数据:1)美国非农就业数据;2)美国通胀率数据。和全球其它主要央行一样,如今美联储也认为,较高的通胀率会降低居民的生活成本,而较低的通胀率则会提高人们的生活成本。其它条件不变的话,当美联储决定加息的时候,一定意味着美联储觉察到通胀率有过高的趋势。因此,金价在美联储加息之后出现大幅上涨就不足为奇了。2016年9月份美国的通胀率成为投资者重点关注的数据。因为最近美国通胀率已经出现了偏离预期的情况。基于最近5年的数据,扣除食物和能源支持的美国消费者价格指数(CPI)与5年前相比仅仅上涨了10%,这一涨幅创下上世纪60年代以来的新低。在2013年美国的通胀率数据降至最低水平,伴随着美联储大力的刺激政策,通胀率开始回升。过去30年间,美联储降息的次数要比加息的次数频繁,最终的结果是美国利率已经从1986年的8%,降至今天的0.5%。之前没有比这更低的利率了。考虑到通胀率因素,自1986年以来生活成本从4%以上降至目前的0.5%。在2011年中期,这一数据下降至负3.5%,当时国际金价达到每盎司1900美元以上。现在金价又处于上升阶段,可以说美联储应该对此感到幸运。目前美国的失业率创近10年来新低,与此同时美国股市繁荣、债市和房地产市场都表现平稳,而且未来一段时间内市场可能还需要美联储再次降息。2016年金价的涨幅已经表明美国的通胀迹象抬头。另外,金价也应该感谢美联储,因为美联储加息就变相地承认目前通胀率过高,这会推动国际金价上涨。(翻译 Yilia) 更多精彩内容欢迎搜索关注微信公众号:腾讯财经(financeapp)。相关的主题文章: