Haitong strategy why can these stocks hit a new high of 615-www.09955.com

Haitong strategy: why these stocks can hit 615 highs (with shares) Sina App: Live on-line blogger to listen to expert guidance on forest stock selection Jiepan Niugu tournament to study since the WeChat public Xun Yu Kan – strategy (xunyugen) core conclusion: 15 years since 615, 225 stocks of innovation high, accounting for 9%, of which 60% are concentrated in a small increase in the mean and median, respectively 42% and 26%. (2) the characteristics of innovative high stocks: higher innovation rate, higher turnover rate, more private enterprises, smaller initial market value and lower initial PE. Driving force: excellent performance, industrial capital holdings, asset M & a reorganization. Why can these stocks hit a new high of 615? Since June 15, 2015, A shares fell sharply after three, the lowest in January 27th to 2638 points, at 3000 points in the vicinity of. The daily turnover of A shares fell from 2 trillion and 400 billion at the peak to 510 billion 700 million at present, and the balance of financing dropped from 2 trillion and 300 billion in the peak period to 899 billion at present. Although the current index compared to the high point has hit forty percent off, but during the period there are still many stock prices hit a new high since 615. 1.225 stocks since the new high since 615, or an average of 42%, 225 stocks (excluding new shares) hit a record high since the fall of 615, of which about 60% from small and medium scale. 15 years after the June 15th A shares experienced three fell, the biggest decline in the Shanghai Composite Index reached 49%, the index is still forty percent off points higher, but there are still a lot of stocks hit 615 highs. With 15 listed companies in June 15th as samples, by August 29th 16, a total of 427 stocks since the new high since 615 (innovation high index since 615 since the interval is positive, rather than the stock price hit a record high). Considering the short duration of time shares, the stock price history is not much, not high, it will be listed in the 14 years after June 15th (excluding stock shares duration less than 12 months), a total of 225 stocks fell 615 since the record high, accounted for A shares (A shares only 9% here the market for 14 years before June 15th, the same below). After excluding secondary shares, 60% of innovative high stocks are concentrated in small and medium-sized enterprises, and the proportion of specific gem, small and medium-sized board and motherboard is 21%, 38% and 41% respectively. The proportion of gem, small and medium-sized board and main board Companies in all A shares is 15%, 29% and 56% respectively. High share innovation since 615 since the average price range of 42%, of which small and medium board companies rose more. The average and median value of 225 innovative stocks since 615 were 42% and 26% respectively, which were higher than those of A shares -34% and -42%. In the innovation of high stocks, gem, small and medium-sized board, motherboard (excluding small and medium plate) interval average price increases were 34%, 53%, 37%, small and medium-sized board companies rose more. 2. what are the characteristics of innovative high stocks? Excluding sub IPOs, this paper analyzes 225 stocks with high innovation since June 15th 15, mainly with the following characteristics: Theory

海通策略:为何这些个股能创615来新高(附股) 新浪财经App:直播上线 博主一对一指导 听牛人解盘选牛股 上股林争霸赛   转自微信公众号 荀玉根-策略研究(xunyugen)   核心结论:①15年615以来225只个股创新高,占比9%,其中六成集中在中小创,涨幅均值和中值分别为42%和26%。②创新高股的特征:消费股创新高率更高、换手率更高、多为民营企业、最初市值规模偏小、最初PE较低。③驱动力:优异的业绩、产业资本增持、资产并购重组。   为何这些个股能创615来新高?   自2015年6月15日后,A股经历三次大幅下跌,1月27日最低至2638点,目前在3000点附近。A股单日成交额从高峰时的2.4万亿跌至当前的5107亿,融资余额口径从高峰期的2.3万亿回落至当前的8990亿。虽然当前指数相比高点已经打六折,但期间仍有不少个股股价创615以来新高。   1. 225只个股创615以来新高,涨幅均值达42%   225只个股(剔除次新股)创615大跌以来新高,其中约六成来自中小创。15年6月15日后A股经历了三轮大跌,上证综指最大跌幅达49%,目前指数较高点仍打六折,但期间仍有不少个股创615以来新高。以15年6月15日已上市的公司为样本,截止16年8月29日,共有427只个股创615以来新高(创新高股指自615以来区间涨跌幅为正,而非股价创历史新高)。考虑到次新股存续期短,历史股价不多,股价创新高意义不大,故将在14年6月15日后上市的个股剔除(次新股存续期不足12个月),共有225只个股创615大跌以来新高,占A股的9%(此处A股仅指14年6月15日前上市的公司,下同)。剔除次新股后,创新高股六成集中在中小创,具体创业板、中小板、主板分布占比分别为21%、38%、41%,所有A股中创业板、中小板、主板公司数量占比分别为15%、29%、56%。   创新高股自615以来区间涨跌幅均值为42%,其中中小板公司涨幅更大。 225只创新高股自615以来区间涨跌幅均值和中值分别为42%和26%,均高于A股的-34%和-42%。在创新高股中,创业板、中小板、主板(剔除中小板)区间涨跌幅均值分别为34%、53%、37%,中小板公司涨幅更大。   2. 创新高个股具备哪些特点?   剔除次新股,分析自15年6月15日以来创新高的225只个股,主要具备以下特点:   大消费行业公司创新高率更高。从绝对占比看,化工、机械、房地产创新高股家数最多,分别占总数的13%、9%、8%,煤炭、石化行业无创新高股。从相对占比看,家电、通信、农林牧渔、基础化工、汽车创新高股比例最高,分别占行业家数的22%、16%、15%、14%、13%。   区间换手率更高。创新高股自615以来区间换手率均值和中值分别为1015%和846%,而A股分别为897%和798%,总体上自615以来创新高个股交易更加活跃,区间换手率更高。   多数为民营企业。在创新高股中民营企业、地方国企、中央国企的占比为71%、14%、4%,在A股中分别为53%、25%、13%,创新高个股多数为民营企业。   最初市值规模多数偏小。15年6月15日时创新高股总市值均值和中值分别为148和68亿元,A股分别为282和133亿元,整体上创新高股市值规模偏小。目前创新高股总市值均值和中值分别为214和191亿元,A股分别为110和87亿元。   最初估值水平较低。15年6月15日时,创新高股市盈率(整体法)为26倍,略低于A股的30倍。目前创新高股市盈率(整体法)为32倍,远高于A股的20倍。   3. 哪些因素驱动个股创新高?   优异的业绩驱动创新高。考虑到16年部分上市公司中报业绩仍未披露,故在此统一采用16年一季报财务数据。我们统计得到创新高股归母净利增速(整体法)为37.7%,远高于A股的-0.1%,创新高股的年化ROE(整体法)为13.3%,高于A股的9.3%,创新高股的年化基本EPS(算数平均)为0.472,高于A股的0.262,创新高股业绩远超A股平均水平。从个股看,更优异的业绩造就创新高股的更高涨幅,净利增速处于500%以上和100%~500%区间的创新高股615以来涨幅均值分别为51%和48%,而净利增速处于0~100%和0以下的创新高股分别为38%和40%。   产业资本大举进军驱动创新高。在15年6月15日以来的225只创新高股中,96只个股获二级市场重要股东净增持,其中20只个股净增持股份数比例不低于5%(以15年6月15日为基准),在弱势行情中产业资本增持行为利于支撑股价走强。不少险资加入举牌抢筹大战,如生命人寿举牌浦发银行、宝能系举牌万科、安邦举牌同仁堂等,由于险资具有买入并长期持有的特点,这就更利于低估值蓝筹股走强,实现股价创615以来新高。   资产并购重组驱动创新高。为确定资产并购重组驱动创新高的个股,我们以15年6月15日以来是否有相关重大并购重组公告作为判断创新高股是否受并购重组驱动,由此推算在225只创新高股中,共有116家受到并购重组驱动,占总数的52%。资产并购重组的目的主要包括借壳上市和业务转型,前者通过为上市公司注入优质资产,大幅改善上市公司基本面,从而导致股价大幅上扬,如大杨创世(圆通速递借壳)、新海股份(韵达货运借壳)等。后者主要是所属传统行业的上市公司转型至传媒、新能源等前景更佳的行业,从而市场对其形成业绩改善的预期,由此带动股价大幅上行,如当代明诚(收购强视传媒)、紫光学大(收购学大教育)等。此外,虽然部分个股没有完成资产并购重组,但资产重组预期升温也令股价表现较为强势,如金路集团(收购万厦房产失败)、鞍重股份(九好集团借壳上市失败)等。另外,在创新高股中,由资产重组驱动的个股涨幅更显著,这类个股自615以来涨幅均值和中值分别为52%和35%,远高于创新高股的42%和26%。   风险提示:监管趋严,业绩不及预期 新浪声明:此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体,新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: