Will the people who rob the house get stuck-残清1864

Will the people who rob the house get stuck? Will the people who rob the house get stuck? Cheng Kai – CPI is a let the market is very concerned about the data, but the market concern CPI not because of concern the price of pork prices rise or fall, the importance of CPI is that it is an important reference for the central bank’s monetary policy, the consumer price index CPI, together with PPI that factory producer price index, if the drop is too large economy is in danger of deflation, the central bank will need to relax monetary policy to stimulate economic growth. The August CPI data low indeed than the market expected, August CPI rose 1.3%, a record low since October 2015, in spite of this, the central bank’s monetary policy in the remaining 4 months of this year, estimation is very difficult to find a reason to cut interest rates again, the reason is not sufficient, to prevent asset prices, especially real estate prices the reason is very full of foam. For those who hold full cash, financing costs are low, anxious to grab the king of developers, the central bank once again cut interest rate this good thing is certainly not, and for those who purchase, the interest rate reduction in 2016 is actually already in place. Now the rest of the matter is how to make the first tier and strong second tier cities housing prices stabilized. For Beijing housing prices in Shanghai, seems to have formed a very consistent expectations: developers believe that prices will rise, or will not be careless with to grab the most expensive land; the bank also believes that the first-tier cities will increase prices, otherwise it will not rush to grab the most expensive land developers loans; the government also worried that prices will rise, or not restart the purchase of a variety of measures to limit credit; purchase whether speculative investment or self living people, no longer believe Beijing Shanghai prices will fall, can afford to buy, can not afford to buy and buy all kinds of leverage. How does this expectation look more like the stock market at 5000 in 2015? Of course, the market can’t be predicted. What we can do is to manage and control the risks according to the probability. This words is easy, but it’s too hard, otherwise it would not have so many people in the stock market plummeted last year in the explosion. What is the big probability event in the current real estate market? When expectations are so consistent, it is likely that housing prices fluctuate. No one can predict a longer-term trend, but a fluctuating risk can kill people. I don’t say when the house price peaked. When is the risk of house price callback the biggest? Of course, all the forces on the market are expected to be consistent. That’s what I’m talking about. If this concept is bigger and requires you to control the risk, what should you do? Of course, do not chase high housing. If you have a house, the cost is relatively low, you probably don’t panic sell, because no one can expect to the top, but if you have money, this time going to rob the house, even more frightening is that you need to add leverage to buy a house, and this is beyond the ability to repay you leverage leverage, so you are dangerous. This danger has nothing to do with the ups and downs of house prices

离婚抢房的人会不会被套牢?   离婚抢房的人会不会被套牢?   ■程凯   CPI是个让市场很关注的数据,但是,市场关注CPI倒不是因为关心猪肉价格涨了还是跌了,CPI的重要性,在于它是一个央行货币政策的重要参考,CPI这个消费者价格指数,连同PPI那个工厂生产者价格指数,如果降幅过大,经济就有陷入通缩的危险,央行就有必要放松货币政策,以刺激经济增长。   8月份的CPI数据之低的确出乎市场的预料,8月CPI同比上涨1.3%,创下2015年10月以来新低,尽管如此,央行的货币政策在今年剩下的4个月里,估计还是很难找到再次降息的理由,降息的理由不充分,防止资产价格尤其是房地产价格泡沫的理由却很充分。   对于那些手持充沛现金,融资成本低廉,着急去抢地王的开发商来说,央行再次降息这种美好的事情是肯定没有的,而对于那些购房人来说,2016年里的降息幅度其实也早已到位了。现在剩下的事情,是如何让一线和强二线城市的房价稳下来。   对于北京上海的房价,似乎已经形成了一种极其一致的预期:开发商认为房价还会涨,不然不会不管不顾地去抢地王;银行也认为一线城市的房价还会涨,不然就不会急着给抢到地王的开发商贷款;政府也担心房价还会涨,不然不会重启各种限购限贷措施;购房人不管是投资投机的还是自住的人,也不再相信北京上海的房价会跌下来了,能买得起的就买,买不起的就加各种杠杆买。这种预期,怎么越看越像2015年时5000点的股票市场呢?   当然了,市场是无法被预测的,我们能做的只是按照概率办事和控制风险而已。这两句话说起来容易,但是做起来就太难,否则也就不会有那么多的人在去年股市暴跌中爆仓了。什么是现在房地产市场中的大概率事件?当预期如此一致的时候,就很有可能是房价波动之时。   没有人能预测到更长期的走势,但是一个波动的风险就能让人死掉了。我就不说房价什么时候见顶了吧,什么时候房价回调的风险最大?当然还是市场上各种力量预期都一致的时候。这就是我说的概率比较大的事件。如果这个概念比较大,又要求你控制风险,那你该怎么办?   当然是不要追高买房了。   如果你手里有房子,成本还比较低,你大概不至于慌着卖掉,因为没有人能预计到顶部,但是如果你手里有钱,这个时候还要去抢房子,更可怕的是,你还要加杠杆买房子,而且这个杠杆还是超出你还贷能力的杠杆,那么你就是危险的。   这种危险和房价的涨跌无关,如果你这么干,早晚有一天会被套住的,不是今天就是明天,不是这里就是那里。你可能会说,看着北上深的房子这么涨心里慌啊,担心自己以后永远买不着房子了,想想去年吧,那些在5000点抢股票的人同样是担心买不到股票了。   在5000点买股票的人,真正需要反思的问题其实是为什么没有在3000点的时候买股票。在2016年被一则谣言搞得去离婚抢房的人,同样也要问一下自己,为什么没有在2014年买房,那个时候你是真的买不起还是不敢买房呢?如果那个时候你是不敢买,为什么在2016年你又敢买房了呢?   之前我写过一篇文章,说的是无论是股市还是楼市,现在风头最盛的都是开发商,房子卖得好不愁现金流,还可以去资本市场上买另一家开发商的股票,搞得一个板块涨,带着大盘也涨;但是,我们还是冷静下来想一想趋势好不好,过去的十多年叫做地产的黄金十年,然后我们又说这个黄金十年不再了,但是现在这种情况又让人羡慕还是房地产最靠谱。那么,我们到底是应该被顶部的繁荣所迷惑,还是回归自己原来的趋势判断呢?房地产,真的还有下一个黄金或者是白银十年吗?   这是一个经济从高速发展转向中速发展的时代,这是一个向高端制造和消费拉动转型的时代,最终,每一个经济体的增长需要的还是科技创新和生产力提高的时代。   据彭博数据,世界市值最高的5家公司现在全部来自科技行业,这在历史上尚属首次,苹果、谷歌、微软、亚马逊和Facebook,中国的腾讯市值也在最近冲过了2万亿港元的大关,这不叫风口,这叫趋势。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: